沒有石油的政治伊斯蘭（Political Islam Without Oil by Friedman）
算是ㄧ篇持平的報導，分析選後埃及兩大伊斯蘭政黨（穆斯林兄弟會與光黨Al-Nour）的態度，即使是光黨，被外界視為基本教義派，對非伊斯蘭事物毫不妥協，也向外表示重視民生議題，並非在意識形態上打轉。
Published: January 10, 2012
Islamist movements have long dominated Iran and
Saudi Arabia. Both the ayatollahs in Iran and the Wahhabi Salafists in Saudi
Arabia, though, were able to have their ideology and the fruits of modernity,
too, because they had vast oil wealth to buy off any contradictions. Saudi
Arabia could underutilize its women and impose strict religious mores on its
society, banks and schools. Iran’s clerics could snub the world, pursue
nuclearization and impose heavy political and religious restrictions. And both
could still offer their people improved living standards, because they had oil.
Islamist movements have long dominated Iran and
Saudi Arabia. Both the ayatollahs in Iran and the Wahhabi Salafists in Saudi
Arabia, though, were able to have their ideology and the fruits of modernity,
too, because they had vast oil wealth to buy off any contradictions. Saudi
Arabia could underutilize its women and impose strict religious mores on its
society, banks and schools. Iran’s clerics could snub the world, pursue
nuclearization and impose heavy political and religious restrictions. And both
could still offer their people improved living standards, because they had oil.
Egypt’s Islamist parties will not have that
luxury. They will have to open up to the world, and they seem to be realizing
that. Egypt is a net importer of oil. It also imports 40 percent of its
food. And tourism constitutes one-tenth of its gross domestic product.
With unemployment rampant and the Egyptian pound eroding, Egypt will probably
need assistance from the International Monetary Fund, a major
injection of foreign investment and a big upgrade in modern education to
provide jobs for all those youths who organized last year’s rebellion. Egypt
needs to be integrated with the world.
The Muslim Brotherhood, whose party is called
Freedom and Justice, draws a lot of support from the middle classes and small
businesses. The Salafist Al Nour Party is dominated by religious sheiks and the
rural and urban poor.
Essam el-Erian, the vice
chairman of the Muslim Brotherhood’s party, told me: “We hope that we can pull
the Salafists — not that they pull us — and that both of us
will be pulled by the people’s needs.” He made very clear that while
both Freedom and Justice and Al Nour are Islamist parties, they are very different,
and they may not join hands in power: “As a political group, they are
newcomers, and I hope all can wait to discover the difference between Al Nour
and Freedom and Justice.”
On the peace treaty with Israel, Erian said:
“This is the commitment of the state — not any group or party — and we have
said we are respecting the commitments of the Egyptian state from the past.” Ultimately,
he added, relations with Israel will be determined by how it treats the
Palestinians.
But generally speaking, he said, Egypt’s economic
plight “is pushing us to be concerned about our own affairs.”
Muhammad Khairat el-Shater, the vice chairman of
the Muslim Brotherhood and its economic guru, made clear to me over strawberry
juice at his home that his organization intends to lean into the world. “It is
no longer a matter of choice whether one can be with or against globalization,” he
said. “It is a reality. From our perspective, we favor the widest possible
engagement with globalization through win-win situations.”
Nader Bakkar, a spokesman for
Al Nour, insisted that his party would move cautiously. “We are the guardians
of Shariah,” he told me, referring to Islamic law, “and we want people to be
with us on the same principles, but we have an open door to all the
intellectuals in all fields.” He said his party’s economic model was Brazil.
“We don’t like the theocratic model,” he added. “I can promise you that we
will not be another dictatorship, and the Egyptian people will not give us a
chance to be another dictatorship.”
In November, Hazem Salah Abu Ismail, an
independent Salafist cleric and presidential candidate, was asked by an
interviewer how, as president, he would react to a woman wearing a bikini on
the beach? “She would be arrested,” he said.
The Al Nour Party quickly said he was not
speaking for it. Agence France-Presse quoted another spokesman for Al Nour,
Muhammad Nour, as also dismissing fears raised in the news media that the
Salafists might ban alcohol, a staple of Egypt’s tourist hotels. “Maybe
20,000 out of 80 million Egyptians drink alcohol,” he said. “Forty million
don’t have sanitary water. Do you think that, in Parliament, I’ll busy myself
with people who don’t have water, or people who get drunk?”
What to make of all this? Egyptian Islamists have
some big decisions. It has been easy to maintain a high degree of ideological
purity all these years they’ve been out of power. But their sudden rise to the
top of Egyptian politics coincides with the free fall of Egypt’s economy. And
as soon as Parliament is seated on Jan. 23, Egypt’s Islamists will have the
biggest responsibility for fixing that economy — without oil. (A
similar drama is playing out in Tunisia.)
They don’t want to blow this chance to lead, yet
they want to be true to their Islamic roots, yet they know their
supporters elected them to deliver clean government, education and jobs, not
mosques. It will be fascinating to watch them deal with these tugs and
pulls. Where they come out will have a huge impact on the future of political
Islam in this region.
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